Overview
Our perceptual systems are pattern-finding machines! By understanding the tendency to find patterns when there aren't any this tendency can be more exclusively beneficial.
Types
| Name | Description | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Clustering illusion | The tendency to overestimate the importance of small runs, streaks, or clusters in large samples of random data (that is, seeing phantom patterns). | [1] [2] |
| Illusory correlation | Inaccurately perceiving a relationship between two unrelated events. | [1] [3, 4] |
| Selection bias | The tendency to notice something more when something causes us to be more aware of it, such as when we buy a car, we tend to notice similar cars more often than we did before. They are not suddenly more common – we just are noticing them more. | [1] |
Performance Perspectives
- Consider patterns you notice as those for further consideration as opposed to relying on the intuition that by virtue of noticing the pattern it must be a non-random or important one.
Related Fallacies
| Name | Description | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Correlation implies causation | A faulty assumption that, because there is a correlation between two variables, one caused the other. | [5] [6] |
| Temporal sequence implies causation | X happened, then Y happened; therefore X caused Y. | [5] [7] |
| Wrong direction (reverse causation) | Cause and effect are reversed. The cause is said to be the effect and vice versa. | [5] [8] |
| Regression fallacy | Ascribes cause where none exists. The flaw is failing to account for natural fluctuations. It is frequently a special kind of post hoc fallacy. | [5] |
References & Acknowledgements
[1] Wikipedia contributors. "List of cognitive biases." Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, 14 Jul. 2020. Web. 23 Jul. 2020. link
[2] Iverson GL, Brooks BL, Holdnack JA (2008). "Misdiagnosis of Cognitive Impairment in Forensic Neuropsychology". In Heilbronner RL (ed.). Neuropsychology in the Courtroom: Expert Analysis of Reports and Testimony. New York: Guilford Press. p. 248. ISBN 9781593856342.
[3] Tversky A, Kahneman D (September 1974). "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases". Science. 185 (4157): 1124–31. Bibcode:1974Sci...185.1124T. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. PMID 17835457.
[4] Fiedler K (1991). "The tricky nature of skewed frequency tables: An information loss account of distinctiveness-based illusory correlations". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 60 (1): 24–36. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.60.1.24.
[5] Wikipedia contributors. "List of fallacies." Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, 26 Jul. 2020. Web. 28 Jul. 2020.
[6] Pirie, Madsen (2006). How to Win Every Argument: The Use and Abuse of Logic. A&C Black. p. 46. ISBN 978-0-8264-9006-3. Retrieved 10 September 2015.
[7] Damer, T. Edward (2009). Attacking Faulty Reasoning: A Practical Guide to Fallacy-free Arguments (6th ed.). Wadsworth. ISBN 978-0-495-09506-4. Retrieved 30 November 2010.
[8] Gula, Robert J. (2002). Nonsense: Red Herrings, Straw Men and Sacred Cows: How We Abuse Logic in Our Everyday Language. Axios Press. ISBN 978-0-9753662-6-4.
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