Overview
For anyone in the workplace, making good estimates of durations is key. But research shows that our default intuitions in making such predictions tend to be inaccurate.
Types
| Name | Description | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Planning Fallacy | The tendency to underestimate task-completion times. | [1] [2] |
| Well Travelled Road Effect | Underestimation of the duration taken to traverse oft-traveled routes and overestimation of the duration taken to traverse less familiar routes. | [1] |
Performance Perspectives
- By knowing our time estimate intuitions can be flawed we can simply be motivated to practice in a way to improve these.
- External systems can be helpful for quantifying historical time estimates together with actual time required to provide a means to obtain a bias-corrected time estimate.
References & Acknowledgements
[1] Wikipedia contributors. "List of cognitive biases." Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, 14 Jul. 2020. Web. 23 Jul. 2020. link
[2] Sanna LJ, Schwarz N (July 2004). "Integrating temporal biases: the interplay of focal thoughts and accessibility experiences". Psychological Science. 15 (7): 474–81. doi:10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00704.x. PMID 15200632.
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